What will the world be like after the COVID-19 crisis ؟

The COVID-19 crisis will be a significant and devastating historical global event. As the pandemic subsides, it is expected that the current global system, including the capitalist economic system, will collapse, leading to the emergence of a new global system that may include adjustments favoring Islamic economics.

The belief that hopes will be realized on their own is incorrect; there must be reasons and preparation for correcting the current reality, which appears challenging in the short and medium term. It is not possible to return to the pre-crisis normal without making some adjustments to the way of life due to the coronavirus, which has affected most countries in the past few weeks up to the time of writing this report in mid-April 2020. This means that the coronavirus has been around for more than three months, and the victors in the current battle, akin to a global economic war against the deadly coronavirus, will be those who can write history.

All countries are now experiencing societal strain caused by the virus's new and intense spread. It is important to note that the world will change after the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to significant transformations, according to the following scenarios:

Scenario 1: The Best-Case Scenario

An agreement between the major powers leads to China emerging economically and technologically, and a swift and friendly submission to China. Based on the agreement between China, the U.S., and the European Union, an announcement of the discovery of a treatment and vaccine will be made, ending lockdowns and quarantines within a short period, by the end of May 2020 at the latest, and possibly by summer. This would mean only a global economic recession.

Consequently, life will gradually return to normal, starting with the reopening of air travel, the resumption of jobs, and various sectors of activities under hygiene regulations, until life gradually returns to normal before the end of 2020. However, the effects of the economic and financial crisis will continue into 2021, until recovery begins. Prosperity will start to emerge in most developing countries, and Islamic and Arab countries will have significant opportunities due to their resources and investment potential. The economy will be driven by knowledge, innovation, and technology, leading to the following developments:

1. The post-COVID-19 world will not see the continued dominance of the United States. The U.S. will no longer be regarded as a global leader due to its administration's focus on narrow self-interests and lack of competence.

2. China will effectively lead the next phase in partnership with the U.S., the European Union, and others. China will take on this role and steer the direction, shifting power and influence from the U.S. and the EU to China. Despite initial difficulties in addressing the virus, China has managed the pandemic effectively, while Europe and the U.S. have faced confusion and mishandling, tarnishing their positions.

3. The international system will face significant pressures, leading to a global economic downturn, a decrease in economic activity, and increased tensions between countries. This could result in instability and widespread conflict within some countries, including those in the EU.

4. Some countries will require continued recapitalization with billions of dollars to support their economies, which are burdened by debt and difficulties. Their public financial resources will need support.

5. The efficiency of some governments will be highlighted, while others will be exposed for their failures due to the disruptions caused by the pandemic in many cities, market closures, travel restrictions, and damage to the global economy. The U.S. could have mitigated the global impact of the pandemic significantly by having international organizations provide more timely information, allowing governments to prepare and direct resources where they were most needed. The U.S. could have taken on this role and coordinated these efforts to show that its focus was not solely on domestic issues.

Scenario 2: The Worst-Case Scenario

If no agreement is reached among the hidden powers that are above the U.S. and China, which lead the major powers along with the U.S., a Third World War might occur. This conflict would force the warring parties, primarily the U.S. and China, to sit at the negotiating table and divide global influence and power differently. Prolonged lockdowns and quarantines would result in a global economic depression, driven by the continued struggle for global influence between the U.S. and its allies versus China and others. This means no consensus would be reached on the division of global interests, and the global system would remain under the control of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council with American dominance. Consequently, the following would happen:

1. China's challenge to American hegemony would significantly impact global economic trends, accelerating a shift that had already begun. This shift would transition from a U.S.-centric globalization to a new global system where China plays a central role.

2. There would be a move away from reliance on the dollar, leading to the emergence of a new global currency.

3. Most global agreements would be revised, and changes would be made across various domains.

4. The internet and other systems would be restructured to become open spaces for all, no longer solely controlled by the U.S. as they are currently.

5. Governments around the world would adopt emergency measures to manage the crisis, but many would be reluctant to relinquish the new powers acquired once the crisis ends. This reluctance would not contribute to changing the prevailing global policies marked by conflict. Previous rivalries among major powers have not been resolved, and the crisis would not mark the beginning of a new era of global cooperation.

   The battle against the current pandemic would reveal a world that is less open, less prosperous, and less free due to several factors, including inadequate planning and incompetent leadership, placing humanity on a troubling path.

The solutions I recommend are as follows:

• Private sector companies should strive to ensure a better provision of their supplies.

• Health systems need to reorganize themselves in a more effective manner.

• Countries should consider securing their independence regarding strategic products.

• Adjustments to the way of life should be made.

• Agree on a basket of currencies that includes the dollar and relies on digital currencies.

• Prepare to implement Islamic economics as a global alternative to the current capitalist system.

• Prepare for changes in the economic and social models.

• Rebuild trust in globalization and international trade to achieve economic recovery that enhances competitiveness anywhere in the world.

• Countries should review all laws to align with the upcoming phase.

• Countries need to establish robust political, economic, and health systems to outperform those that have experienced different and devastating outcomes in their fight against COVID-19.

• Everyone must address their wounds and absorb the shock to maintain stability.

بBy Dr. Shahab Al-Azizi